• ice age alarmism

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 • ice age alarmism

Posted by kerrb at 2008-04-24 05:40 PM

"I beseech you, in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you may be mistaken."

This is an interesting contrary viewpoint. Human caused increase in CO2 levels is only one factor amongst many contributing to the earth's climate:
Sorry to ruin the fun, but an ice age cometh

... there is a close correlation between variations in the sunspot cycle and Earth's climate. The previous time a cycle was delayed like this was in the Dalton Minimum, an especially cold period that lasted several decades from 1790
Ice age alarmism is needed to combat global warming alarmism? How should we be conducting this debate?
Bill Kerr

 • Re: ice age alarmism

Posted by Cyberman at 2008-04-30 08:16 PM


My first attempt was consigned to the junk folder on the grounds that "gratuitous, condescending or patronising comments - adds nothing new to discussion and can be read here ".

I'm not sure about that; sometimes those sort of comments can add a great deal. There is lot of good stuff in the junk forum now. I'd like to see it given a different name.

But, anyway,  I'll have another go.


What you need to do to suggest we are moving towards the next ice age is  carefully write an article using cherry picked data points. In the example above, I have deliberately chosen points to exaggerate three periods of  warming. The one in the 19th century is a handy one to use  because, if you can show that there was warming when CO2 levels were much lower than they are now, you can create doubt that the current warming is also caused by CO2 emissions.

It is a bit harder to claim that the earth is cooling down when it is clearly warming up, but it's not impossible. The 1998 temperature peak was used by the 'global warming alarmists' to good effect at the time. If 2008 turns out to be a cool year, this will give you a chance to turn the tables. You'll just need to join the 1998 and 2008 dots, project 100 years into the future and 'hey presto' you've immediately made out a case for everyone to drive around in Humvees producing as much CO2 as possible to stave off the next ice age.

Don't post up any graphs like I've done of course. That'll give the game away to everyone.   



 • Re: ice age alarmism

Posted by dalek at 2008-04-30 11:17 PM

Bill, It could well be that the delay of the phenomena that causes sunspots is holding back the global warming trend by reducing the solar flux. I suspect this may well be so. The problem is what do you think will happen when the sun returns to "normal"? It could be that at present the emission of CO2 is acting to stabilise the earth climate. An increase in solar flux is the last thing we need. The system is too big and thermally conservative to allow meaningful conclusions to be drawn from a few years of data.

Human "needs" of course have nothing at all to do with the climate change phenomena. The climate will change according to the laws of physics and the sun/earth relationship and a whole host of factors including CO2 content.

If we were half as smart as you think we are we would be taking active steps to control the situation. Denial and hand wringing will get us no-where.