• strength and democracy

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 • Re: strength and democracy

Posted by owenss at 2008-05-15 02:39 AM

Dalek I think that people who take the height of the long boom as the bench mark for the performance of the US economy are selling ideas by slight of hand.

 

Its clearer if we look at the USA at an earlier time say 1945. If anyone took 1945 as the bench mark the US economy was even more dominant in relative terms as it was the only war economy that had expanded whilst most competitors lay in ruins. But to use 1945 is too obvious so people peddling doom use 1965.

 

If I was to compare the US economy now with 1935 you could quite rightly say that I'm selectively picking dates which is exactly what I think you are doing.

 • Re: strength and democracy

Posted by dalek at 2008-05-15 09:46 PM

Owenss, 1965 seemed fair to me because the effects of WW2 and the Great depression had washed out of the US economy and Vietnam was yet to come. (Korea was was a post war side-show IMV).

The global economy has changed radically since 1965. The panic about Japan, was always self serving hype BTW. I remember saying so at the time.

The trade figures tell us that the US can only stay on top of the pile by means of it's mlitary strength. China and the ROW could pull the plug on the US economy any-time they please, I suspect that it is only this threat that restrains the US from an all out nuclear attack on Iran.

The item below is a straw in the wind; naughty Iranians, they must be punished.

TEHRAN, April 30 (Xinhua) -- Iran had totally removed U.S. dollars in the country's oil transactions, an Oil Ministry official said on Wednesday.

    "The dollar has completely been removed from our oil trade....Crude oil customers have agreed with us to use other currencies (in the trade)," Oil Ministry official Hojjatollah Ghanimifard was quoted as saying by the state television.

    "We make our transactions with euros in Europe, but yen in Asia," he added.

    Due to the tensions with Washington in the past years over the nuclear disputes and the latest depreciation of dollars, Iran has vowed to decrease the greenback in its foreign trade. Iran central bank also has reduced dollars in the country's foreign reserves. In last November's summit of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Saudi Arabia, Iran proposed that it was necessary to replace the U.S. dollar with other major hard currencies in oil trading.

 Dalek

 • Re: strength and democracy

Posted by owenss at 2008-05-16 07:14 AM

Dalek thanks for expressing an opinion about the projected dominance of Japan.

 

I think that 1935, 1945 and 1965 are all exceptional years and are not suitable as benchmark years.

 

Do you realise that in your Goldman Sachs example China will have to extend its remarkable growth period for another 40 years for your predictions to hold up?

 

Personally I hope it happens but hope is a poor substitute for good judgment and my judgment is that another 40 years of unprecedented growth is at best unlikely.